Kayseri: land change, 2016–2025
Two Sentinel-2 satellite images of a 20 km square around Kayseri, from 2016-07-18 and 2025-07-20, were classified by a ResNet18 model trained on EuroSAT. Every 640 m cell is put in one of four land-cover groups, and the two dates are compared cell by cell.
- Before
- 2016-07-18
- After
- 2025-07-20
- Area analysed
- 386 km²
Change
+54.5 km²net change in built-up area
In cells the model is sure of on both dates (confidence ≥ 0.8): 17.2 km² became built-up, 36.9 km² changed in total.
The model is undecided on this scene; treat the results with caution.
Land cover on both dates
| 2016 | 2025 | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture increased | 30.6% | 35.9% | +5.3 |
| Natural vegetation decreased | 33.6% | 14.2% | -19.4 |
| Built-up increased | 35.7% | 49.8% | +14.1 |
| Water no notable change | 0% | 0% | 0 |
Largest transitions (confident cells)
- Natural vegetation → Agriculture18 km²
- Agriculture → Built-up9.8 km²
- Natural vegetation → Built-up7.4 km²
- Agriculture → Natural vegetation1.6 km²
Limits
- Every value shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
- Areas are not measurements but approximations counted from cells. The figures are always computed on 640 m cells; the scale only changes how the map is drawn.
- The model was trained on European images; results outside Europe are less reliable.
- Clouds, shadows and seasonal differences can show change that is not there.