Wellington: land change, 2016–2025
Two Sentinel-2 satellite images of a 20 km square around Wellington, from 2016-01-30 and 2025-02-21, were classified by a ResNet18 model trained on EuroSAT. Every 640 m cell is put in one of four land-cover groups, and the two dates are compared cell by cell.
- Before
- 2016-01-30
- After
- 2025-02-21
- Area analysed
- 394 km²
Change
-15 km²net change in built-up area
In cells the model is sure of on both dates (confidence ≥ 0.8): 0.4 km² became built-up, 9.8 km² changed in total.
Prior knowledge (Natural Earth): 9 cells in open water well away from the shore were counted as water; the model had seen another class there.
Land cover on both dates
| 2016 | 2025 | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture no notable change | 0% | 0.2% | +0.2 |
| Natural vegetation no notable change | 50.7% | 51% | +0.3 |
| Built-up decreased | 11.8% | 8% | -3.8 |
| Water increased | 37.6% | 40.8% | +3.2 |
Largest transitions (confident cells)
- Natural vegetation → Water9 km²
- Built-up → Water0.4 km²
- Natural vegetation → Built-up0.4 km²
Limits
- Every value shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
- Areas are not measurements but approximations counted from cells. The figures are always computed on 640 m cells; the scale only changes how the map is drawn.
- The model was trained on European images only; results for places tagged "experimental" are less reliable.
- Clouds, shadows and seasonal differences can show change that is not there.