Nairobi: land change, 2016–2025
Two Sentinel-2 satellite images of a 20 km square around Nairobi, from 2016-02-14 and 2025-01-07, were classified by a ResNet18 model trained on EuroSAT. Every 640 m cell is put in one of four land-cover groups, and the two dates are compared cell by cell.
- Before
- 2016-02-14
- After
- 2025-01-07
- Area analysed
- 394 km²
Change
+18.1 km²net change in built-up area
In cells the model is sure of on both dates (confidence ≥ 0.8): 4.5 km² became built-up, 8.6 km² changed in total.
Land cover on both dates
| 2016 | 2025 | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture increased | 2.6% | 5.1% | +2.5 |
| Natural vegetation decreased | 66.6% | 59.5% | -7.1 |
| Built-up increased | 30.8% | 35.4% | +4.6 |
| Water no notable change | 0% | 0% | 0 |
Largest transitions (confident cells)
- Natural vegetation → Built-up4.5 km²
- Built-up → Agriculture2 km²
- Built-up → Natural vegetation0.8 km²
- Natural vegetation → Agriculture0.8 km²
- Agriculture → Natural vegetation0.4 km²
Limits
- Every value shown is a model estimate, not a measurement.
- Areas are not measurements but approximations counted from cells. The figures are always computed on 640 m cells; the scale only changes how the map is drawn.
- The model was trained on European images only; results for places tagged "experimental" are less reliable.
- Clouds, shadows and seasonal differences can show change that is not there.